This year, Sri Lanka, along with several other South Asian nations, will have elections. Both the Political Opposition and the government are hard at work getting ready for elections. Although dates have not yet been disclosed, September or October are anticipated to be the months for presidential elections. While some analysts think general elections would come before a presidential election, others think the reverse will occur.
After experiencing its worst-ever economic catastrophe in 2022, the island nation has managed to achieve a certain level of political and economic stability, if flimsy and, at best, misleading.
It appears that the administration, led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, has succeeded in restoring order. With backing from other nations, particularly India, as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and Asian Development Bank, the nation has imposed a number of hard austerity measures on itself.
Sri Lanka’s economy appears to have done well since 2022. In 2023, the nation succeeded in getting an agreement with the IMF for an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. The economy expanded by 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2023, although inflation decreased to 4.2 percent a year later from 56 percent in December 2022
Sri Lanka has made headway at restructuring its about $11 billion bilateral debt thus far. It anticipates reaching a settlement with bondholders and private creditors, albeit the latter are still cautious, if not suspicious.
The tourist industry, one of Sri Lanka’s key economic pillars, has grown significantly. Arrivals of foreign tourists increased from 194,495 in 2021 (during the pandemic) to 1,487,303 in 2023 (partially because of a large-scale tourism marketing campaign with a well-known global influencer).
Once tourist-starved, the nation is currently seeing a sharp rise in hotel reservations, far exceeding capacity. In fact, in a bizarre turn of events, the Department of Immigration and Emigration has sent out a notice asking visitors from Russia and Ukraine to depart the island within 14 days. This is apparently due to a party titled “White Only” that was hosted in a Russian cafe in the Southern Province. Compared to 2021 and 2022, when the administration was practically pleading for tourists, this is a far cry.
Even while these areas have improved, there is a perception that these advancements only help a certain affluent class. The public and opposition have resisted the government’s economic reforms, particularly the reorganization of the nation’s state-owned businesses, which is anticipated to be finished soon.
Critics have also pointed to tax reforms. Professionals, small- and medium-sized business owners, and members of the nation’s lower and middle classes are among those who have been severely impacted by recent increases in income and value-added taxes.
Unsurprisingly, these actions have exacerbated political division in Sri Lanka. The regime’s turn toward authoritarianism has accelerated that trend. The civic society has expressed disapproval of the recently passed Online Safety Bill, for example. Scandals have taken center stage, especially one involving a former health minister who was subsequently placed on remand.
The government is now more vulnerable as a result of all of these, but the opposition is still as divided as ever.
Main Political Opposition: Balawegaya Samagi Jana
Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the nation’s principal opposition party, garnered 23.92 percent of the vote in the general elections of 2020, which was a mediocre performance. Formerly Wickremesinghe’s ally, its leader, Sajith Premadasa, has turned into a scathing critic of his administration.
Taking advantage of the general unhappiness, the SJB has promised to undo a lot of the government’s implemented measures. But the group is in a difficult predicament. As the primary opposition, it has, on the one hand, coordinated a number of demonstrations against the regime’s tax increases and austerity policies. However, a large number of its members of parliament have sided with the economic theory that supports those changes.
According to a newly released economic policy document, the party is in favor of working with the IMF. As a result, MPs on the left have accused the SJB of being the same as the administration. In response, the SJB called these MPs “clueless” when it came to economic changes, further stoking splits within the opposition.
The party has welcomed a number of people who were connected to the former Gotabaya Rajapaksa administration and his Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party, which has further complicated matters. Among them are former military personnel. Sarath Fonseka, a former Army commander, serves as the chair of the SJB. Fonseka and Sajith Premadasa are no longer on speaking terms, as Fonseka is now promoting himself as a stand-alone presidential contender due to the participation of former SLPP heavyweights.
Taking a Left Turn: The National People’s Power
The National People’s Power (NPP), often regarded as the most well-liked party in Sri Lanka, is predicted to lead the field in the next elections.
The NPP is the political group that has tapped into the public’s dissatisfaction with the government more than any other. Its campaign has been built around pledges to eradicate corruption. Naturally, one of the main topics of the demonstrations that forced former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office in 2022 was this. The youth, working class, and peasantry of the nation—large segments of whom have shifted to the left—continue to be moved by anti-corruption sentiment.
The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which was founded in the 1960s as an anti-establishment group that opposed even the mainstream left, has a legislative branch known as the NPP. The JVP was outlawed by the administration in place at the height of the nation’s ethnic turmoil in the 1980s. As a result, it was forced out of the democratic mainstream, sparking a protracted uprising that was inspired and fueled by Indian meddling in the nation.
The JVP has moderated its positions since joining democratic politics in the 1990s, but it still has the same views on a number of subjects, most notably the 13th Amendment that India implemented. Although it has also participated in coalition politics, it regularly criticizes conventional political parties. Yet, young people in the nation see it youth and lower middle classes as being morally superior to others, immaculate and devoid of corruption.
In that regard, the NPP’s growing significance both domestically and internationally is confirmed by the Indian government’s invitation to Delhi, where the party team met with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.
Politics of Minorities: ITAK
These parties’ ability to form partnerships will be crucial to their success. Despite the fact that nationalism—especially Sinhala Buddhist nationalism—has been a significant factor in Sri Lankan elections, nearly every party has partnered with minority organizations. For example, the United National Party (UNP), led by Ranil Wickremesinghe, garnered support from the biggest Tamil party in Sri Lanka in 2019, despite the SLPP actively courting Muslim votes despite the Easter assaults.
Nonetheless, minority politics have undergone a profound change since the 2020 general election. This has been particularly clear in the politics of Tamil Nadu. The leader of the largest Tamil political party, Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), shifted from a person generally seen as moderate to a more hardline and militant figure.
This portends a significant change in the strategies employed by Tamil parties. Minority parties had previously tried to negotiate concessions from major parties on matters such as power devolution and the return of lands now held by the military to their original owners in the Northern Province of the country.
Today, things have drastically changed. ITAK continued to hold a commanding lead in the Northern Province at the most recent general election. However, two opposing parties were able to obtain enough seats to enter Parliament: the 2020-formed Tamil People’s National Alliance and the 2010-formed Tamil National People’s Front. Both have pushed for Tamil autonomy, going beyond ITAK’s politics of concession.
The current head of ITAK, S. Sridharan, is a suitable representation of these changes. Pressed to be a “die-hard apologist of the LTTE,” a separatist group that fought the government of Sri Lanka for thirty years, Sridharan has insisted on finding a fresh approach to solving his community’s issues.
Upon becoming the leader of the party, he paid a visit to an LTTE cadre graveyard in Jaffna. Ever since, he has voiced doubts regarding the 13th Amendment and emphasized the necessity of moving beyond devolution of authority. He has advocated for a federal state, much like his colleagues in other Tamil parties. Most importantly, Sridharan has promised to use all of his resources to get Tamil nationalist forces organized “as they were prior to 2009,” that is, prior to the government of Sri Lanka’s military defeat of the LTTE.
Although alliances with minority parties have become a sine qua non of Sri Lankan politics, it is likely that the government and opposition will compete for minority votes through these parties closer to the election. However, it remains to be seen how far the major parties will go to court minorities, as Wickremesinghe himself has made overtures to ITAK in the past, convening a meeting of Buddhist monks and members of the Tamil diaspora. In the long run, Sridharan’s victory signals a rupture in minority politics in the island that will make it less likely that Tamil parties and the administration would reconcile.
With the opposition, things are the same. Disgruntled SLPP voters are being courted by the SJB and NPP. Ex-army officials are among the categories that strongly disagree with the political stances and philosophies of parties such as ITAK.
Here the opposition has a problem. On the one hand, these organizations might contribute to weakening the SLPP’s grasp on nationalist support. However, they can potentially harm the chances of the opposition in minority populations. Minority parties are unlikely to completely give up living together with mainstream groups, but reaching out to former military personnel may cost the SJB and NPP support from groups like ITAK.
The Future: A (Very) Huge Uncertainty
Often referred to as the oldest democracy in Asia, Sri Lanka finds itself at a difficult crossroads this year. The island’s internal politics will greatly influence its foreign policy in light of the escalating Indo-Pacific tensions and the potential for an endless conflict in the Middle East.
Naturally, at the moment, economy rather than foreign policy is the main focus. When will Sri Lanka start to heal is the main concern that everyone has.
Nevertheless, there is no simple way to respond to or settle such queries.
Different groups have put forth and suggested various remedies for Sri Lanka’s economic predicament. Two interconnected questions lie at the heart of it all: how long can the nation continue to impose austerity on itself, and how long Is the government able to endure?
Economists in Colombo contend that the IMF should carry out and expand its reforms. However, opposing parties—even those that essentially agree with them—will undoubtedly take note of the outrage those policies have caused.
As a result, party MPs have argued for cautious engagement with the IMF, despite the SJB leader having openly declared that, should he win office, he would renegotiate Sri Lanka’s arrangement with the organization. Such inconsistencies are expected in a nation where political parties must cater to a variety of electorates.
Regarding the government, it appears satisfied to keep pushing stories of stability. Not many people appear to be purchasing this line. Although there are no longer long lines for gas and fuel, the situation has changed from 2022. However, given the price increases and tax increases that most people have had to endure, this is not very comforting.
In fact, the situation has become so polarizing that a video appearing on social media featuring U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu characterizing Sri Lanka as a comeback story incited outrage from many Sri Lankans who questioned how he could continue to be ignorant of and indifferent to the realities on the ground.
It is difficult to predict who will win elections and what the victor will do for the country given these circumstances. The NPP has undoubtedly gained ground, while the SJB has lost support from the public due to its disorganized response to economic reforms; however, the NPP is still mocked by mainstream parties, including the main opposition.
Ironically, none of the three major parties vying for votes—the SLPP, SJB, and NPP—have made a genuine effort to engage with minority parties, especially Tamil parties.
Undoubtedly, the SLPP and SJB have formed partnerships with specific organizations. With the NPP, this is not at all the case. Thus far, the NPP has been happy to tout its impeccable reputation of being devoid of corruption everywhere. How successful will this messaging be with voters in the island’s north and east, who have historically backed community parties, is the question.
But, it is also true that individuals are turning left, especially toward the NPP, as a result of a general lack of faith in the mainstream. This disenchantment has mostly transcended racial and religious boundaries.
Naturally, it remains to be seen if that will result in votes. However, it has undoubtedly improved the NPP’s chances. This has established it as the overwhelming favorite in an election that will undoubtedly be marked by a great deal of instability, confusion, and conjecture.
See our earlier blog entry, “Over 35 Lives Lost in Surprise Snowfall and Heavy Rains” for additional information on Pakistan Updates.
